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Only two days before the New York mayoral election, political analyst Michael Lange issued a bold electoral prediction – going beyond the winner overall, and block by block. Lange, a political analyst born and raised in New York City, has spent over a decade in progressive politics and emerged as something of a well-known figure recently for his thorough analyses into city data and polling.

He released his extremely precise forecast map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani would win although missing Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his Substack, his platform. He has a flair for witty coinages. He pointed out, as an example, the divide between the “commie corridor”, stretching from one neighborhood to Bushwick to a third locale, where he predicted (accurately) that the left-wing candidate would triumph by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal outrank the New York Times” in audience and the majority of electors favored Cuomo, campaigning as a conservative-courting independent.

Election Night Trends and Surprises

What was your election night?

I had to do that since they were dropping around 200,000 ballots into the system every few minutes! I felt a little nervous initially: Mamdani was ahead the early vote by 12 points, but there were two big batches of ballots added later and his lead went from 12 to 8%. I was worried.

Understand, it was possible where election day went somewhat badly for Mamdani, where the opponent was going to end up basically doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. But the winner gained 500,000 supporters to his initial base, and this was critical why he won. He campaigned and greatly broadened his base from the primary.

Coalition Building

How did the mayor-elect gain those extra votes from?

He assembled the alliance that the left always wanted to build: diverse racially, it’s young, tenants and individuals squeezed by affordability. He improved significantly with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the primary. Additionally he further maximized his base of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without expanding his appeal.

He created the coalition that progressives long aimed for: multiracial, young, tenants and people squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, confined to Hispanic laborers, south Asians and Muslims. Electors in immigrant strongholds that went for the former president previously backed Zohran this year. However I wouldn’t say he was winning over white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Impact

One of the big stories of the election was the record participation. Who benefited?

Both sides. Participation was significantly higher than I had expected. I figured it could exceed two million, but it reached 2.3M – that is a lot of darn voters. Existed a decent anti-Mamdani block, energized, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Currently you would say he’s likely to surpass half. He’s at just over 50% but remain around 200K ballots uncounted as of Wednesday morning. Thus it’s not it’s definitive, but I think it’s likely, and I hope he achieves it so then no one can say the Republican was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His support completely collapsed.

He lost any district in any area. Not even one neighborhood in Staten Island, similar to an highly conservative neighborhood. That really surprised me. Cuomo held very white areas, affluent zones and devout communities, and plus gained all of these conservatives on the island who had a strong turnout. I believe occurred a lot of strategic balloting by the Republicans. This happened before the former president endorsed for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide if Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your much mentioned “commie corridor” – was support for the candidate overwhelming in those areas of the boroughs?

In my view there was a little dilution of the progressive zone in some areas like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, for example, the property owners and residents all went for the independent. Thus there existed some opposition. But no, largely the leftist base is another huge reason why Mamdani won – he scored between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the vote there was coverage on if the candidate was gaining ground with the community. Any indication that he did?

There are neighborhoods with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. But in the affluent districts like the Manhattan area, his position on Israel was influential there. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they all leaned Cuomo. And also, there are Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in the borough, they were strongly Cuomo. Therefore I don’t know if there were major surprises here, but he retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the another locale by big margins.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city represents in politics? Will progressive base become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest figures from progressives hail from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that we’ll see additional examples – candidates will emerge from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

However I believe that every city in America can have their own commie corridor. Cities are the epicenters of progressive influence in America – because they’re young, tenancy is common and they are places where people are crushed by the inequalities we face.