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The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, though experts suggest PVV is unlikely of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and established a multi-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June over disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a election period dominated by issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with some experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the vote yields a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant fragmentation means that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is shut out of government. But, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks could take several months, political observers indicate that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based coalition led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.