Keir Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to parliament. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.

Serious Obstacles in the Selection Procedure

Multiple figures on the party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is largely due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to avert any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several sources also shared fears about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.